Monday, December 16, 2013

Does handicapping give equal chance of winning?

Handicapping in its most literal sense is artificial advantage given to some contestants or some are disadvantaged for equal chances of winning by all in a race or contest. In horse racing, handicap refers to a race in which the contenders have different level of ability.  An advantage or disadvantage can be in the form of points, strokes, weight to be carried or distance from the target or goal.

The term Handicap is said to have come from a popular seventeenth century lottery cap “Handi-cap” in which players placed their bets in a cap. Handicapping is used in many sporting events like chess, golf, croquet, bowling etc. and horse racing of course in which it encourages wagering.  Horse racing handicapping is also used to predict the outcome of an event for purpose of betting in the point spread system of wagering. Just to know point spread quickly, it is a wagering system in a spectrum and bets are placed for the outcome to be above or below the spectrum.

While there are no set rules for horse racing handicapping, there is a good chance of the pick going wrong but certain horse racing handicapping tips if kept in mind can help choose the right pick.  The first tip for Handicapping can be picking the horse based on the tier it is placed in. For the novice or someone new to handicapping, horses are placed in color coded tiers and the tier color is displayed as the background color of each horse’s program. The tier color range from dark green to yellow with one exception which is grey tier relating to the horse not being rated. The horses in one tier are ranked from best to worst and are close in ability to be chosen one from another. A good tip for handicapping for a single bet race, such as Exacta, Trifecta is to key boxes for dark green tier horses. For multiple bet races, it is advisable to key boxes in the top tier and sometimes from the second tier or grey tier also.

Some common sense and prudence is also needed in handicapping, which involves being selective and not choosing all races to bet. A good practice is to select races which have smaller top tier and try to skip races which have one or more grey tier horses. The age old saying,” it takes money to win money applies to handicapping in horse racing as well. The simple bets Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta and some more are simple to bet and do not need a large money outlay, but the exotic Pick 4s, Pick 6s need significant  money outlay for actually chance of getting the bet.

Another good indicator is to check the horse’s ability past performance and current form to select Handicapping. While choosing between two horses with similar workouts, the one with best current form has more chances of prevailing. To analyze workout, the horse indicated in red has quality workout while a “Monster icon” workout for a horse has to be watched out! Another important factor to be considered while handicapping is the track surface the horses are predisposed to. Horses either perform well on turf or dirt rarely do horses perform well on both. Breeding of the horse plays a role here, as there are physical aspects of the horse which determine the track surface for the horse.

The track condition is as significant in handicapping as much the dirt vs turf issue which is many times not given due consideration. It is quite biased in the sense some horse prefer wet tracks while some prefer dry tracks. This happens with dirt and turf, mostly observed with European courses which are softer than their American counterpart. A simple way is to see if a horse likes an off track is to check his past record on wet track. It is important to change selections on the day of racing in the likelihood of change in track conditions.  To understand this kind of situation better, all races on a particular racing day can move from turf to dirt except one major stakes which remain on grass. To make selection for handicapping, a good practice is to select turf condition go to all races as turf and then override the surface to dirt which came off.

The tips can be more and many but none guarantee a pick to be 100% percent right. Before trying out handicapping at the real races, give it a try at http://www.horseracegame.com/betting.php.

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